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UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that the upcoming U.S. elections will significantly impact global markets, regardless of the winner. Both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are expected to exacerbate the U.S. budget deficit, currently at $1.8 trillion, while market volatility is anticipated as investors react to the electoral outcome. As markets prepare for the November 5 polls, there are concerns about inflation and trade protectionism, with a potential increase in public debt globally. UBS aims to support clients through this uncertainty, leveraging its strong capital position.
UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that the upcoming U.S. elections will significantly impact global markets, regardless of the winner. He anticipates market volatility and notes that both candidates are likely to exacerbate the U.S. budget deficit, projected to reach $2 trillion in 2024. Financial regulation may tighten under a Harris administration, reflecting the Biden administration's approach to banking oversight.
UBS reported strong Q3 earnings, with total revenue of $12.33 billion and net profit of $1.43 billion, significantly surpassing expectations. Despite a 15% decline in net interest income, the bank's performance reflects effective cost-cutting and robust loan income amid a volatile market. Looking ahead, UBS faces uncertainties from geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes, while continuing the integration of Credit Suisse.
Volkswagen's third-quarter margin has shrunk to 3.6%, the lowest since the pandemic, prompting plans to close three factories and cut jobs. The company faces significant challenges, including declining sales and ongoing negotiations with unions amid a contracting economy.In contrast, Alphabet's cloud numbers show a nearly 6% gain, with executives ramping up investments in data centers and chips. Standard Chartered's CFO expressed confidence in growth, targeting over 8 million clients by 2026, driven by strong performance in Asia and Africa.
Kamala Harris is intensifying her attacks on Donald Trump’s authoritarian rhetoric, but some Democrats in Michigan worry this focus may alienate voters more concerned about the economy. Activists argue that emphasizing Trump’s threats to democracy distracts from Harris’ strengths, particularly on abortion rights and economic issues. As concerns grow about her messaging, Harris is shifting back to economic topics while continuing to highlight the risks posed by a potential second Trump term.
Ford reported a staggering $1.2 billion operating loss in its electric vehicle division for Q3, contributing to a share price drop of over 5%. Meanwhile, UBS shares surged to their highest level since 2008 after posting a $1.43 billion profit, exceeding expectations. In the tech sector, Alphabet's quarterly profit rose by a third, boosting its share price by 4% in after-hours trading.
Gold prices are surging, nearing $2,790 per ounce, with a potential rise to $3,000 driven by geopolitical tensions and increased central bank purchases, particularly from BRICS nations. The market remains bullish, with upcoming US employment data and the presidential election likely to influence trends. Investors may secure profits at the $3,000 mark, possibly leading to a consolidation phase.
European leaders are bracing for increased American protectionism regardless of the U.S. election outcome, with both candidates likely to adopt "America first" policies. Concerns are rising over potential trade conflicts, especially if Trump returns to power, as he has threatened tariffs that could strain European exports and weaken the euro. EU officials are preparing for both scenarios while emphasizing the need for enhanced competitiveness and economic resilience.
China suggested that a Trump presidency could lead to a disregard for Taiwan, emphasizing that U.S. policy prioritizes American interests. Taiwan's government firmly rejected Beijing's sovereignty claims, asserting that only its people can determine their future. Trump's campaign has included demands for Taiwan to pay for its protection and threats of tariffs against China if it acts against the island.
The rise of video game consoles, particularly the PlayStation, disrupted the pinball market by offering affordable home gaming options, leading to a significant decline in pinball sales. UBS identifies 29 firms poised for technological disruption across various industries, emphasizing the importance of innovation in achieving superior earnings growth. Notably, companies like Samsung and Société Générale are highlighted for their potential to leverage technology for market transformation.
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us election expected to impact global markets amid budget deficit concerns
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